What the West Should Do in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan

The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, but isolating Afghanistan will not serve anyone’s interest.

By Hameed Hakimi, Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme and Europe Programme

Afghanistan is grappling with a dire humanitarian situation, with over half of its population, or 23 million people, projected to require assistance in 2025. If international aid is permanently cut off, particularly from the US, the country’s already deteriorating situation will worsen. Despite the Taliban’s repressive governance and human rights abuses, disengagement from Afghanistan risks turning it into a global pariah state, which is neither in the West's nor the international community’s interest.

The US remains the largest donor, contributing $3.63 billion in aid since its military withdrawal. However, the policies of President Trump’s administration, particularly the shift towards an "America First" approach, have cast uncertainty over the future of aid, which could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis.

Taliban's Internal Struggles and International Diplomacy
The Taliban leadership has struggled with internal divisions, notably over policies regarding women's rights, which have garnered international criticism. Despite this, the regime maintains its grip on power and has been actively seeking recognition, claiming that its hold on Afghanistan is proof of successful governance. Yet, no country has formally recognized the regime, and Western nations have withheld political recognition while providing humanitarian aid.

In September 2024, the Taliban’s foreign ministry claimed it had engaged with 11 countries, including regional powers like Russia, Iran, Turkey, and increasingly, India. This shift highlights the Taliban’s ability to secure diplomatic relations, even as it remains internationally isolated. Afghanistan’s border tensions, particularly with Pakistan, continue to add to the geopolitical complexity.

Engagement with Afghanistan: A Strategic Imperative
Afghanistan holds significant mineral resources and geostrategic importance, making it an area of interest for regional powers like China and Russia. However, its future prosperity relies on international engagement, especially with the West. The worsening humanitarian situation and the risk of terrorism and instability in the region require careful diplomacy.

Western nations must engage with Afghanistan to prevent further destabilization. The key will be working through regional powers such as India or mediation-heavy countries like Qatar. Instead of demanding unrealistic conditions from the Taliban, back-channel diplomacy should be prioritized to promote stability and avoid alienating ordinary Afghan citizens who rely on aid.

Cutting off aid and applying political pressure on the Taliban will likely backfire, strengthening their narrative of victory over the West and worsening the plight of the Afghan people. Ultimately, patient, long-term engagement—not punitive isolation—is necessary for both regional and global stability.